CICS-NC: MJO monitoring v2 (Beta)

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Hovmöllers

--Select variable-- Outgoing Longwave Radiation Zonal Wind Meridional Wind Velocity Potential Stream Function --Select Level-- 850-hPa 200-hPa --Select algorithm-- Original TCs Removed CFS Forecasts --Select Latitude-- 5S - 5N 15S - 15N 5N - 15N 15S - 5S

Wheeler and Weickmann (2001) developed a method for filtering OLR in real-time to identify, track, and predict the MJO and equatorial waves. This webpage is a preliminary follow-on to monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo that expands on their methodology and applies it to other variables.

An improved interface and more diagnostics will be added in the coming months, so please register to receive updates.

These Hovmöllers show longitude-time plots for OLR, zonal wind (uwnd850 & uwnd200), meridional wind (vwnd850 & vwnd200), velocity potential (chi850 & chi200), and streamfunction (psi850 & psi200) at 850-hPa and 200-hPa.

Shading shows anomalies from climatogy in the past. In the future, shading is either the sum of all modes or the CFS forecast and its departure from its own climatology. Contours identify the MJO, equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and the low-frequency background (> 120 days). Hurricane symbols denote tropical cyclogenesis identified by NHC and JTWC, with the direction indicating Northern or Southern Hemisphere.

Note that the CFS model climatology has an issue for meridional wind, so these plots are not yet accurate.

• Original:

  • Very similar to the original Wheeler-Weickmann method

• No TCs:

  • Tropical-cyclone-related anomalies are removed before filtering following the method of Schreck et al. (2011) and Aiyyer et al. (2012)

• CFS Forecasts:

  • Instead of appending with climatology as in Wheeler-Weickmann, the observations are instead padded with 45-day forecast anomalies from the CFS. These anomalies are the mean of a 16-member pseudo-ensemble including all four runs each from 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z yesterday.

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