Simulated Decadal Mean Change in Annual Precipitation: Southwest U.S. Model Distributions for CMIP3 and CMIP5
Model distributions of simulated decadal mean change in annual precipitation (%) for the Southwest United States, for each future decadal time period (represented by their approximate midpoints, e.g., 2015 = 2011–2020), with respect to the reference period of 2001–2010. The upper panel shows values for the CMIP3 SRES B1 (blue), A1B (green), and A2 (red) scenarios. The lower panel shows values for the CMIP5 RCP2.6 (light teal), 4.5 (dark teal), 6.0 (yellow), and 8.5 (dark red) scenarios. Each individual model is represented by a plus sign (+), with circles depicting the multi-model means. These symbols are shown in color if the value is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Dashed lines indicate the 10th and 90th percentiles of observed precipitation anomaly values from 1981–2010.